AutoStatsIQ
Data through Oct 2026
Recall outlook

Which complaints become recalls, and what recalls cost

When owners' complaints about one part of one model year pile up, what happens next? This page follows every such surge in the NHTSA record, estimates which open surges are likely to end in a recall, and puts a price range on recalls. The estimates are labelled as estimates; everything else is counted from NHTSA's files.

Complaint surges followed by a recall within two years12%6,593 surges from January 2005 to October 2024
Bulletin, no recall50%A service bulletin on the same component
Neither38%No recall or bulletin on it
Median wait8 monthsFrom surge to recall, when one came
What a surge is. The first month in which one component of one vehicle (make, model and model year, by NHTSA's component group) reaches 10 owner complaints within 12 months. Its outcome is a recall on the same vehicle and component group within 24 months, a manufacturer communication on it, both, or neither. 2,510 surges that came within 24 months after a recall on the same component are set aside, because those complaints are often about the recall itself. Complaints are not verified by NHTSA, and a surge with no recall is not evidence that a defect exists or that anyone concealed one.
By manufacturer group

Hyundai Motor Group surges were followed by a recall most often, 14%; Nissan the least, 7%

Share of complaint surges followed by a recall on the same vehicle component within 24 months, groups with at least 150 surges, January 2005 to October 2024.

Hyundai Motor Group
14%
Ford
14%
Volkswagen Group
14%
Honda
12%
General Motors
12%
Stellantis
10%
Toyota
10%
Nissan
7%
Source: NHTSA complaints and recalls files. Differences partly reflect each group's mix of vehicles, components and owners.
By component

Airbags surges are the most likely to end in a recall, 21%

Share of complaint surges followed by a recall on the same component within 24 months, components with at least 150 surges.

Airbags
21%
Lighting
20%
Steering
16%
Suspension
15%
Speed control
14%
Fuel system
13%
Electrical system
13%
Visibility and wipers
12%
Brakes
11%
Powertrain
11%
Engine and cooling
10%
Structure
7%
Source: NHTSA complaints and recalls files.
Over time

Since 2005, between 5% and 18% of each year's surges led to a recall

Outcome of complaint surges by the year the surge happened, within 24 months.

RecallService bulletin only
025%50%75%200520082011201420172020202415%51%
Source: NHTSA complaints, recalls and manufacturer communications files.
Severity

Surges with more crashes, fires and injuries reach a recall more often: 15% against 11%

Share of surges followed by a recall, by the share of the surge's complaints that report a crash, fire, injury or death (severe).

20% or more severe
15%
Under 20% severe
14%
None severe
11%
Source: NHTSA complaints and recalls files.
How far to trust the estimates

Tested on surges it never saw, the model ranks them only modestly better than chance (accuracy 0.59, where 0.5 is a coin toss)

Fitted on 5,903 older surges, then scored on the 690 most recent surges whose two-year window has closed. Predicted chance of a recall against what happened.

PredictedActual
020%40%60%0 to 5%5 to 10%10 to 20%20 to 30%30 to 45%45 to 60%51.2%27.3%
Rank accuracy (AUC) 0.59: 0.5 is a coin toss, 1 is perfect. Brier score 0.127 against 0.128 for always guessing the average rate (lower is better). Its percentages are roughly right on average; it is weak at telling one surge from another.
What moves the odds

Open NHTSA investigation moves the odds most

Change in the odds of a recall for one standard step in each factor (or its presence), holding the others fixed, from the model fitted on every closed surge. Component and manufacturer group are also in the model.

Open NHTSA investigation
x1.41
Older model year
x0.72
All vehicle complaints
x0.78
Complaints, 3 months
x1.27
Bulletin in prior 2 years
x1.23
Recall, other years
x1.13
Share severe
x1.09
Surges, other years
x1.05
Complaints in 12 months
x1.01
Logistic regression with a ridge penalty, fitted on NHTSA records only.
Open surges

874 surges of the last two years have no recall yet; the model rates the 2024 Mazda CX-90 Plug-In Hybrid's steering highest, at 54%

Estimated chance of a recall on the same component within two years of the surge, from the model above. 15% of recently tested surges were recalled. The model's accuracy on unseen surges was 0.59 (0.5 is a coin toss), so treat these as rough risk levels, not forecasts. An estimate from past patterns, not a finding about any defect.

Open complaint surges and the estimated chance of a recall
VehicleComponentSurgeComplaints in 12 monthsCrash, fire, injury or deathAlready known to NHTSAEstimated chance of a recall
2024 Mazda CX-90 Plug-In HybridSteeringJan 2026101Investigation, Service bulletin54%
2025 Tesla Model 3SteeringAug 2025104Investigation52%
2024 Jeep WranglerEngine and coolingOct 20252051Investigation, Service bulletin44%
2024 Jeep WranglerPowertrainOct 20251080Investigation, Service bulletin43%
2026 Tesla Model YSteeringNov 2025141Investigation42%
2025 Honda OdysseyEngine and coolingOct 2025201Investigation, Service bulletin42%
2020 Tesla Model 3AirbagsNov 2024101Investigation, Service bulletin42%
2024 Jeep WranglerFuel systemOct 2025742Investigation, Service bulletin42%
2026 Tesla Model YBack-over preventionJul 20261211Investigation41%
2025 Honda RidgelineLightingSep 2025100Investigation, Service bulletin40%
2022 Mazda CX-5LightingFeb 2026100Service bulletin40%
2026 Cadillac Escalade ESVEngine and coolingSep 2026100Investigation, Service bulletin40%
2024 Tesla Model YSteeringJan 2026104Investigation38%
2025 Tesla Model YBrakesDec 2025116Investigation37%
2025 Tesla Model 3Speed controlSep 2025103Investigation37%
2023 Ford Mustang Mach EBrakesApr 2026101Investigation, Service bulletin34%
2026 Tesla Model YDriver assistanceAug 2025123Investigation34%
2024 Mazda CX-90Fuel systemJun 2026110Investigation, Service bulletin34%
2024 Honda RidgelineLightingSep 2025100Investigation, Service bulletin33%
2025 Kia EV6Electrical systemFeb 2026200Service bulletin33%
2024 Tesla Model 3Speed controlDec 2024120Investigation33%
2026 Chevrolet Equinox EVDriver assistanceAug 2026102Investigation, Service bulletin32%
2025 Tesla Model 3Driver assistanceJun 2025112Investigation32%
2025 Honda PassportElectrical systemAug 2026110Investigation, Service bulletin32%
2023 Chevrolet TahoePowertrainApr 2025150Investigation, Service bulletin32%
2024 Honda CR-VFuel systemDec 2024191Investigation31%
2024 Mazda CX-90BrakesMay 2026100Investigation, Service bulletin31%
2026 Tesla Model YSpeed controlNov 2025101Investigation31%
2023 Honda PilotSeat beltsMay 2026140Investigation, Service bulletin30%
2024 Honda OdysseyEngine and coolingNov 2025100Investigation, Service bulletin30%
2024 Jeep WranglerSpeed controlOct 2025360Investigation, Service bulletin30%
2024 Jaguar I-PaceElectrical systemJun 2026150Service bulletin30%
2024 GMC Sierra 1500PowertrainFeb 2025120Investigation, Service bulletin30%
2023 GMC Sierra 1500PowertrainFeb 2025150Investigation, Service bulletin30%
2024 Tesla CybertruckPowertrainMay 2026130Investigation, Service bulletin30%
2025 Honda RidgelineElectrical systemAug 2026170Investigation, Service bulletin30%
2025 Acura MDXEngine and coolingDec 2025130Investigation, Service bulletin30%
2025 Acura MDXElectrical systemJan 2026100Investigation, Service bulletin29%
2025 Mazda CX-5BrakesAug 2026104Service bulletin29%
2023 Ram PromasterElectrical systemMay 2026103Investigation, Service bulletin29%
The 40 highest of 874 open surges. Source: NHTSA complaints, recalls, investigations and communications files; model by AutoStatsIQ.
Data (JSON)
No action on record

87 surges of recent years saw no recall, bulletin or investigation within two years

Surges from the last five closed years with none of the three on record, those with the most crash, fire, injury or death reports first. Most surges end this way. A manufacturer may have found no defect, fixed it under warranty, or handled it in ways NHTSA's files do not show; this list makes no claim that anything was hidden.

Surges with no recall, bulletin or investigation
VehicleComponentSurgeComplaints in 12 monthsCrash, fire, injury or death
2023 Kia SportageDriver assistanceJul 2023113
2018 Ford EcosportBrakesApr 2024103
2018 Honda FITElectrical systemJan 2024112
2008 BMW X3Engine and coolingOct 2022102
2017 Honda AccordDriver assistanceSep 2022102
2023 Kia TellurideDriver assistanceNov 2023102
2023 Toyota TundraDriver assistanceMar 2024102
2023 Toyota Sienna HybridBrakesSep 2024121
2023 Ford F-150 Lightning BEVSpeed controlAug 2024121
2017 Ford F-150WheelsMar 2022111
2020 Toyota RAV4PowertrainOct 2023111
2014 Ford F-350SuspensionFeb 2023101
2011 Mazda MAZDA6SuspensionJul 2023101
2017 Honda CivicSteeringMay 2023101
2018 Toyota C-HRPowertrainDec 2021101
2017 Hyundai AccentEngine and coolingMar 2024101
2018 Honda OdysseyDriver assistanceOct 2022101
2021 Ford F-150 HybridElectrical systemFeb 2022101
2022 Toyota Redundant SiennaBrakesJan 2023101
2021 Honda CivicSteeringSep 2024101
2023 Hyundai TucsonDriver assistanceOct 2023101
2023 Hyundai Santa FeBrakesMar 2024101
2023 Kawasaki KLR650SteeringSep 2023101
2023 Ford Maverick HybridSpeed controlApr 2024170
2022 Ford Escape PHEVEngine and coolingDec 2023160
Source: NHTSA complaints, recalls, investigations and communications files.
What recalls cost

Estimated repair cost to the manufacturer

NHTSA publishes vehicles affected, never costs. These ranges multiply vehicles affected by a cost per vehicle for the remedy type, taken from what manufacturers have disclosed for comparable recalls. They exclude lawsuits, fines, buybacks and lost sales.
Estimated repair cost by year

By these estimates, 2016's recalls were the costliest of the period, at $5.4B to $13.7B

Low and high estimates of the repair cost of the vehicle recalls filed each year. Covers 99% of vehicles in vehicle recalls of the last five years; the rest have remedies we do not price.

High estimateLow estimate
0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B2006200920122015201820212026$7.5B$2.6B
Estimate: vehicles affected times a cost band per remedy type, from manufacturers' disclosed recall charges. Not NHTSA data.
Largest estimates, last two years

Honda's 24V-744 carries the largest estimate of the last two years, $212M to $466M

Vehicle recalls of the last 24 months by the high end of the estimate.

Largest estimated recall costs
CampaignFiledManufacturerSubjectVehiclesPriced asEstimate
24V-744Oct 3, 2024HondaSteering gearbox assembly may have been…1,693,199Part replacement$212M to $466M
26V-237Apr 14, 2026FordLoss of signal between the transmission…1,392,935Software update at a dealer$139M to $418M
25V-572Sep 3, 2025FordRearview camera may display a distorted,…1,456,417Part replacement$182M to $401M
25V-695Oct 13, 2025FordRearview camera may display a distorted,…1,448,655Part replacement$181M to $398M
25V-744Oct 30, 2025ToyotaSoftware error may cause the rearview…1,024,407Software update at a dealer$102M to $307M
26V-104Feb 20, 2026FordWhen towing a trailer, the integrated…4,381,878Over-the-air update$0 to $307M
26V-363Jun 4, 2026StellantisElectric hydraulic power steering pump…1,076,999Part replacement$135M to $296M
26V-366Jun 4, 2026HondaWhen using the tire repair kit, pressure…1,048,613Part replacement$131M to $288M
26V-123Mar 3, 2026FordImage on the center display may flip or…889,950Software update at a dealer$89M to $267M
25V-455Jul 7, 2025FordLow-pressure fuel pump may fail, which can…850,318Software update at a dealer$85M to $255M
Estimate, not NHTSA data.
Checked against disclosures

3 of 4 disclosed charges fall inside our bands

Cost per recalled vehicle as the manufacturer disclosed it, against what these bands give for the same NHTSA campaigns. The two Ford latch charges also helped set the bands, so they mainly test how remedies are classified; the General Motors year and the Ford injectors are independent checks.

  • Ford door latches, 2016Inside the band
    Campaign 16V-643

    Disclosed about $267 per vehicle (source 7); estimated $125 to $275 per vehicle. Classified as a part replacement.

  • Ford F-150 latch water shield, 2017Inside the band
    Campaign 17V-652

    Disclosed about $199 per vehicle (source 8); estimated $25 to $270 per vehicle. Classified as a repair; the disclosed charge also covers a cable inspection.

  • All General Motors vehicle recalls, 2014Inside the band
    77 vehicle campaigns

    Disclosed about $80 to $105 per vehicle (source 3); estimated $72 to $273 per vehicle. A whole year of campaigns, so the remedy mix is averaged.

  • Ford fuel injectors, 2025Outside the band
    Campaign 25V-467

    Disclosed up to about $820 per vehicle (source 9); estimated $100 to $300 per vehicle. NHTSA's remedy text leads with a software update, so the estimate uses the software band, but the charge covers injector replacements. Campaigns like this are underestimated.

Assumptions

Cost per recalled vehicle by remedy type

Disclosed charges are booked when a recall is announced and already assume only part of the fleet will come in for the repair, so the bands apply to every vehicle affected. NHTSA reports average completion of 61.5% to 73.4% for vehicle recalls of 2014 to 2024, and 58.4% for major light-vehicle makers on 2012 to 2016 recalls (lower for older vehicles: 42.3% when the oldest vehicle is 10 or more years old).

Cost bands
Remedy typeLowHighBasisConfidence
Part replacement$125$275Disclosed charges for airbag inflator, door latch, ignition switch and pedal replacements ran about $128 to $267 per recalled vehicle (sources 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11).Moderate
Repair or modification$25$270From a $27 key rework to $199 for a latch water shield and $262 for a switch repair (sources 1, 2, 8).Moderate
Inspection$25$200Inspections with repair where needed, bounded by the rework and latch-shield charges (sources 2, 8).Low
Software update at a dealer$100$300No manufacturer discloses this. Vendor figures: Harman put a dealer software visit at $100; eSync Alliance figures imply about $300 (sources 14, 15).Low
Over-the-air update$0$70No manufacturer discloses this. Harman, as quoted by WIRED and Forbes, put a 1 GB update at $66.50 per vehicle; we could not find the original (source 16).Low

Not priced: Label or owner notice; Refund or buyback; Remedy pending; Not stated; Equipment, tire and child-seat campaigns (units, not vehicles, and far lower completion). Campaigns replacing major modules or batteries can cost far more than these bands (sources 10 and 13), so totals lean low for them.

Sources

Disclosed recall costs behind the bands

Per-vehicle figures are the disclosed total divided by the vehicles covered. Scopes differ (some worldwide, some North America), which is one reason the bands are ranges.

Cost sources
#WhatTotalVehiclesPer vehicleSource
1GM ignition switch repairs, 9 months to Sep 2014$680M2.6Mabout $262Bloomberg via Claims Journal, Oct 31, 2014
2GM ignition key rework, same period$325M12.1Mabout $27Bloomberg via Claims Journal, Oct 31, 2014
3All GM recalls of 2014 (repairs and courtesy transport)$2.9Babout 36Mabout $80 to $105GM 2014 Form 10-K
4GM Takata inflators, GMT900 trucks, 2017 projection$870M6.8Mabout $128Fox Business, Jun 26, 2017
5GM Takata inflators, accrual booked Q4 2020$1.1B5.9M US (about 7M worldwide)about $157 to $186GM 2020 Form 10-K
6Ford Takata inflators, Jan 2021about $610M3.0Mabout $203Ford Form 8-K, Jan 21, 2021
7Ford door latch replacement, 2016about $640Mabout 2.4M North Americaabout $267AP via CBS Boston, Sep 8, 2016
8Ford F-150 and Super Duty latch water shield and cable inspection, 2017$267Mabout 1.34M North Americaabout $199Ford Form 8-K, Oct 18, 2017
9Ford fuel injectors (Bronco Sport, Escape, Kuga), 2025about $570Mabout 694k US plus Kugaup to about $820Ford Form 8-K, Jul 16, 2025
10Chevrolet Bolt battery, 2020 to 2021about $2.0B gross (LG reimbursed about $1.9B)about 142k worldwideabout $14,000GM via CNBC, Aug 20, 2021
11Toyota pedal and floor mat recalls, 2009 to 2010 (repair only)about ¥100Babout 8M worldwideabout $135 to $140Forbes, Feb 4, 2010, citing Toyota
12Hyundai and Kia Theta II engine settlement, 2019about $758M4.17Mabout $182Reuters via The Globe and Mail, Oct 11, 2019
13BMW and Continental brake system, 2024high hundreds of millions of eurosabout 1.53M worldwideabout €460 to €650AP via TT News, Sep 10, 2024
14Software visit at a dealer (vendor estimate)n/an/aabout $100 per service eventHarman blog, 2017
15Dealer software recalls, US and Europe (vendor estimate)more than $900M a yearmore than 3Mabout $300eSync Alliance, 2023
16Over-the-air update, 1 GB (vendor estimate, original not found)n/an/aabout $66.50Harman, as quoted by WIRED and Forbes
Reading this page

Estimates, not findings

Everything else on AutoStatsIQ is counted from NHTSA's files. The likelihoods and cost ranges here are estimates, built from those files and from manufacturers' own disclosures, with their method and track record shown.

No verdicts

A complaint surge without a recall is not evidence of a defect or of concealment. Complaints are unverified, and many problems are fixed by bulletins, warranty work or design changes NHTSA does not record.

No sales data

NHTSA publishes no sales volumes, so popular vehicles produce more surges. Differences between manufacturers partly reflect what they sell and how their owners report problems.

Rebuilt nightly

Surges, the model and the scores are recomputed from the latest NHTSA files every night. The model's out-of-time test is shown above so its accuracy can be judged.